Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 11.675724 14.297305 17.222875 20.708484 24.726143 29.189683 34.500547
2026-01-11 8.050457 11.422477 15.609429 21.096721 27.997861 36.285940 46.879299
2026-01-18 6.131676 9.796587 14.743510 21.704546 31.021977 42.827739 58.653202
2026-01-25 4.578250 8.184879 13.442826 21.323151 32.449861 47.191343 67.731887
2026-02-01 3.638637 7.203434 12.766915 21.567119 34.556358 52.399308 78.037966
2026-02-08 2.803750 6.166361 11.787051 21.157883 35.585029 56.081564 86.373627
2026-02-15 2.135160 5.233987 10.783731 20.522838 36.129975 59.009255 93.706800
2026-02-22 1.800604 4.837092 10.593333 21.118250 38.522821 64.661148 105.086826
2026-03-01 1.417184 4.231313 9.918966 20.797785 39.405606 68.075419 113.336456
2026-03-08 1.151476 3.803607 9.493942 20.832612 40.819177 72.312499 122.924727
2026-03-15 0.860655 3.215982 8.640934 19.973901 40.642004 74.034794 128.764223
2026-03-22 0.736674 3.020565 8.561815 20.535507 42.900086 79.665868 140.740889
2026-03-29 0.596874 2.744971 8.293664 20.769712 44.726076 84.897818 152.658589
2026-04-05 0.488803 2.523611 8.112140 21.164193 46.886066 90.819708 165.975030
2026-04-12 0.409900 2.363498 8.043390 21.773926 49.467902 97.545423 180.808909
2026-04-19 0.307858 2.059328 7.543015 21.391597 50.143698 101.069090 190.603399
2026-04-26 0.247240 1.884536 7.343210 21.636182 52.017408 106.702602 204.008910
2026-05-03 0.182265 1.639547 6.885554 21.225914 52.559378 110.021075 213.688614
2026-05-10 0.128349 1.397066 6.366241 20.589259 52.577580 112.385751 221.827321
2026-05-17 0.106726 1.322658 6.354706 21.186181 55.153496 119.429447 238.079846
2026-05-24 0.076930 1.157749 5.998410 20.864904 55.777472 122.939079 248.402079
2026-05-31 0.057921 1.045579 5.791879 20.899820 57.150505 127.867570 261.305608
2026-06-07 0.036546 0.867516 5.280437 20.038922 56.500134 128.975713 267.575753